If so, then what is likely the crisis-opportunity ahead and what are the best strategies for optimizing risk?
Ron William will outline a behavioural technical analysis framework, as highlighted by a late-cycle rare exhaustion pattern on the S&P500.
This follows warning shot overbought reactions, after multiple “irrational exuberance” greed sentiment readings in August. Most notable was overcrowding of large tech equity positions in the options market, with the put-to-call ratio hitting multi-year extremes, based on linear extrapolations of the “V” shape recovery and omnipotent Fed Put.
Ron will also discuss timing models, which predicted the recent shake-out in late August-early September and signal further asymmetric into this negative seasonality period, weighed by larger cycle forces such as the decennial pattern and USA presidential elections.