Speaker: Robert Brain
Topic: “4 Windows” – One way to analyse stocks and the market
Is now the right time to buy into the market? Are any stocks worth buying right now? Should we use a “market Go/No-Go filter” to minimise risk? What is the best way to periodically review stocks and the market?
There are literally thousands of different ways to answer these questions, and all of them can be right. In this session Robert will describe what he calls his “4-Windows” method of analysis, including: (a) studying plain price, (b) looking at the “big picture”, (c) using key chart indicators, and (d) considering volume. And he will apply this analysis to the current market and share his market analysis. This session will be full of useful tips and hints, and will provoke a lot of discussion.
240208_Melbourne - Brain, Robert
Speaker: Jim Haralambidis
Topic: Lessons for Traders from Nobel-Prize winner Daniel Kahneman’s bestselling book “Thinking, Fast and Slow”
Daniel Kahneman is one of the world’s most pre-eminent psychologists, receiving the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2002. Much of his work involved trying to understand how people’s automatic responses to circumstances affect the rational choices they should be making. Our hard-wired responses often have a greater effect on our choices than we realise, even though we consider ourselves to be rational beings. In his bestselling book “Thinking, Fast and Slow”, Daniel details the ways in which we are often influenced by factors outside of our rational selves.
These factors include Cognitive Biases, Anchoring, Overconfidence, the Availability Heuristic and the Planning Fallacy. Of particular interest to Traders is Loss Aversion, related to Prospect Theory, in which we place different weights on Gains and Losses, and end up selling the wrong stocks. Hindsight Bias afflicts many traders developing trading strategies. We always tend to look for causes for the trading results we get, when many can often be simply explained by Regression to the Mean, which can also be used by traders in developing successful strategies. How good is a discretionary trader’s intuition, versus using a set formula for making trading decisions?
Jim is not a psychologist, but his background in science led him to try and understand some of the psychological factors involved in decision-making, so he can improve his own trading performance.
240208_Melbourne - Haralambidis, Jim