The goal of the developer of a trading system and of the trader who uses it is to have confidence that the signals issued by the system precede trades that provide rewards adequate to compensate for the risk.  The key word is confidence.  The primary limitation is risk.  My presentation is in two parts -- one part for each of the two functions -- trading system development and trading management -- both focusing on that goal.  
This trading system development presentation will discuss measuring success, issue selection, the two components of a trading system (the model and the data), identification of patterns that precede profitable trades, in-sample data analysis, out-of-sample system testing, and methods for validation.