Adelaide Chapter, Wed, 18 September 2019 at 7:00 pm
Parking is available in the EDC car park located within easy walking distance. Click here to view car park location.
Visitors are welcome. First visit free, subsequent visits $40.
5:30 pm: Pre-meeting Dinner
Hope Inn Hotel, 348 Port Road, Hindmarsh. (On your left as you enter the Bistro).
All members and visitors welcome to join us for dinner. No booking required. This is an opportunity to meet the speaker and network with fellow traders
7:00pm: John MacLeod - Predictive modelling techniques applied to ASX stocks
Predictive analytics is the use of data, statistical algorithms and machine learning techniques to identify the likelihood of future outcomes by using current and historical information. Over the past 15 years John MacLeod has researched and applied these methods to the ASX Stock Market to underpin his private trading. Recent research, coupled with learning via the ATAA and member collaborations, has further enhanced the predictive power of this modelling through blending TA indicators with regression and support vector machine (SVM) predictive methods.
There will always be trading opportunities, so it makes sense to estimate the likely future change of a stock price at future points in time, and this is where predictive analytics comes into play. Furthermore, providing a measure of confidence with this prediction is even more useful. John's presentation is intended to prompt his audience to think about:
- setting up robust build and test modelling development;
- using TA attributes in predictive models that estimate the likely future change in price of each stock;
- measuring the strength of each stock estimation;
- how all stocks within a constantly changing market will all have distinct intrinsic drivers price movement behaviours; and
- why models should be constructed and executed in order to accommodate constantly changing markets.
This presentation will challenge the way we use TA and will introduce predictive analytics and some data science as an alternative way of finding potential trades in the market.
John MacLeod has a Master’s of Science in Physics, with a background spanning 30 years as a professional analyst and consultant in designing, building and implementing Predictive and Trigger Based analytical models for telco's, local and overseas consumer banking, publishers, FMCG and other mass marketing organisations.
In 2004 John commenced investigating various methods for predicting the direction of stock prices on the ASX in order to run and support his SMSF, and this has resulted in the successful ongoing management of his SMSF. Over the past 3 years, since joining the ATAA and Quant Trader Special Investigative Group, along with collaborating on research with other ATAA members, these predictive methods have been much enhanced.
John has now retired from the mainstream workforce and spends most of his time researching ways to enhance his models to be more profitable in the ever-changing ASX market. His current goal is to educate ATAA members to think beyond mainstream technical analysis and consider systems that could estimate the future of a stock price.
John is also a member of the Victorian ATAA Chapter Committee, responsible for membership.
9:50: Meeting concludes
Next Meeting Date: Wednesday 16th October 2019
Next Meeting Speaker: Gary Burton
Next Meeting Venue: First Floor, Education Development Centre, 4 Milner St, Hindmarsh.
Next Meeting Normally Held: Generally, the third Wednesday of each Month
- Wed, 18 Sep 2019 07:00 PM
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