| ATAA Blast! Newsletter #179 – May 2025
| Dear ~~first_name~~
Welcome to the latest edition of the ATAA Blast! Newsletter, with lots of informative news.
| In this Blast! edition you can see the following, with links for an easy and speedy go-to to the relevant section below:
- ATAA National President's Update for this month.
- Relevant finance industry news.
- The latest ATAA Website Resource Library updates for the latest month - With an update on the immensely useful and growing ATAA Resource Library, including the now hundreds of video session recordings from the SIGs and network groups and chapter meetings.
- Online Discussion Forums - This resource is now growing in popularity in the ATAA website (for ATAA members only - login is required).
- ATAA National Board Update - News from the national board of directors. This includes advance notification of a Technical Indicator Innovation Competition - read more below.
- List of all of the ATAA Chapters, SIGs and Network Groups - More opportunities for the ATAA members for networking and learning.
- An update on the National Speaker Series of online presentations - the first one was recently on 12 April with Brent Penfold.
- The ATAA 2025 In-Person Conference update - An update on the upcoming 2025 in-person ATAA Conference in Melbourne in October.
- Updates from the ATAA Chapters and SIGs: The next Forex Network online meeting is happening tonight - Thursday 9 April. Included below are updates for some chapters: Canberra, Melbourne - those that have submitted content. Thank you to: Mark (Canberra) for your ongoing contributions.
- IFTA information update: Latest information from IFTA - the free IFTA Update Newsletter is available.
- TECHNICAL ANALYSIS article - In the article this month we consider "Should I have bought this stock a month ago?"
- Detailed benefits for ATAA members.
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As the national Marketing Director, I am still including key marketing phrases in this Blast!:- the ATAA Tag line in blue below, and the ATAA Elevator Pitch also in blue at the bottom of this email. Feel free to use these in your own correspondence to help encourage new members, and of course to remind existing members of why they are ATAA members.
I do hope you find this Blast! newsletter useful and interesting reading; but do feel free to tell us what you really think, and how we can improve it.
NOTES about this newsletter: The appearance of this email newsletter can be a little different depending on how you view it. In Google's Gmail the Gmail Inbox might show just a portion of this edition. At this stage I am not sure of the best way to work around this issue.
ps: Apologies continue for any odd formatting that you might find which I cannot resolve - font size or line spacing etc - as these seem to be oddities in our CE email editor tool (there are probably odd HTML codes hidden behind the text, which we have not found yet).
Robert B Brain
Blast! Newsletter Editor
ATAA Marketing Director
(and ATAA Life Member)
| The ATAA is the knowledge network
for successful financial market
trading and investing
|
National President's Update – May 2025
The inaugural event of the new online National Speaker Series was held on Saturday the 12th of April and got off to a strong start. The presenter, Brent Penfold, spoke on the topic of: Analysis is Good, Making Money is Better. With around 250 registrations and half attending live online, interest was clearly high — and the momentum has continued, with the recorded session attracting nearly 400 views since [ATAA members can view and download the video recording from the ATAA Resource Library]. It’s a great start to the series, and planning is already underway for the next instalment. Stay tuned for details!
Planning for the ATAA National Conference in October is well advanced. More details will be released soon, as well as the supporting website infrastructure and registration pages.
During April, board members — with some assistance from ATAA members outside the board — developed a Digital Marketing Strategy proposal for board consideration. The proposal outlines a comprehensive strategy to promote the ATAA in the digital marketplace, which is increasingly vital, and to encourage new memberships. It also includes a detailed implementation plan for executing the strategy.
There are several vacancies on the ATAA board, and I would encourage any member who feels they can contribute to the work of the ATAA to put their hand up and nominate for a board position. The ATAA board is composed of members like you who volunteer their time and effort to advance the interests of our member organisation.
Jim Haralambidis
ATAA National President
| Relevant Finance Industry News
Following is some finance industry news which we hope you will find interesting and/or useful.
Last month we announced that Kraken, the US-based cryptocurrency exchange platform, had announced its intention to acquire NinjaTrader, which will give it the ability to offer cryptocurrency futures in addition to spot trading. In recent days (6 May) it has been announced that Kraken acquires NinjaTrader to expand market reach. Or read more at FinanceMagnates.com. | ATAA Website Latest Resource Library Updates - recordings from April 2025
Our ATAA Resource Library now has many presentations and recordings going back to 2008. You can drill down on these using the website menu: Resources > Presentations by Date. An alternative way to find something specific on a particular topic is to search the library using the menu option: Resources > Search Resource Library.
The materials recently added to the Resource Library include:
- Thursday 10 April - Melbourne Chapter Hybrid meeting:
- Keith Mundy - Book review - Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets by Stan Weinstein.
- Alan Hull - Understanding Financial Markets as complex adaptive systems.
- Saturday 12 April - Online National Speaker Series:
- Brent Penfold - Analysis is Good. Making Money is Better.
All of these items can be found from the ATAA website menu: Resources > Presentations by Date. Make sure to browse the earlier recordings in the Resource Library, because you might never know what you've been missing. And you can also search the Resource Library by keyword. If your local chapter or SIG has a video recording, or a (PowerPoint) slide deck of a recent session, then it can also be added to our library collection.
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ATAA Website Resource Library - Invaluable JOURNALS from 1990 to 2007
One of the invaluable resources that that ATAA has been holding for many years is a digital (electronic) copy of the official ATAA Journals that were published on a quarterly basis from 1990 to 2007. There are 720 articles in more than 100 Journal documents.
The screenshot below shows how to find the Journals. Firstly, login to the website using your username and password, then use the menu item: Resources > Resource Library Folders, to see the hierarchical folder structure. Then expand the folders: Member Resource Library > ATAA Publications > Journals 1990 to 2007.
Once you've done that you will see the list of available documents, including an MS Excel list of the 720 subjects/articles, and also three PDF versions of the subject index, the index by classification, and the index by author. You can download any of the items by clicking on the small green-backed downward triangle located to the right of each entry. |  | ATAA Online Discussion Forums
Important Note:- Many of our SIG groups and Network Groups, as well as the chapters, have discussion topics in the Online Discussion Forum. Please note that if you post into a Chapter or SIG forum, then only some people will be able to "Reply to" or "Like" your post - other members of your own Chapter or SIG. if you are going to post, and you want any ATAA member to be able to "Like" or "Reply to" your post, then you should post into a forum that is not a Chapter or SIG forum.
The most active forums currently include: Bigalow Network SIG (35 discussion threads with 45 posts), MEL Quant Trader SIG (29 threads with 82 posts). Other active forums include: RealTest Coders Workshop (15 threads with 49 posts), Adelaide Chapter (16 threads, 27 posts), Trading Strategies and Systems (13 threads and 60 posts), "Indicators and Charting" (8 threads, 36 posts), Brisbane Chapter (6 threads, 7 posts), "Trading Software and Tools" (5 threads) - just to name a few.
Check out the growing list of online discussion forums on the ATAA website on a range of T.A. and trading topics. And feel free to start a new discussion topic. The link to access the forum (in the website menu) is enabled after you login to the ATAA website.
You can sign-up to receive update emails on specific topics as they are posted. Login and visit the ATAA Forum to see more details.
Robert Brain
(Marketing Director) | |
ATAA National Board updates
| | | Advance notification for ATAA members and Blast! News subscribers
ATAA Technical Indicator Innovation Competition
Bored using the same old indicators?
Concerned that indicators and TA strategies developed in the 1970s
are not producing good enough results?
Wondering whether your strategies are competing with Institutions and
automated traders well enough
Do you enjoy an intellectual trading and research challenge?
Then enter the ATAA Technical Indicator Innovation Competition!
The ATAA Board invites entries for our Competition in three categories:
- Enhancement of Existing Technical Indicators
- Development of a New Technical Indicator
- Integration of Technical Indicators with Emerging Technologies
Submission Requirements and Judging Criteria for each category will be published on the ATAA website very soon.
Prizes - Final prizes to be confirmed and will likely include:
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A 12-month data subscription
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A cash prize or software subscription
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A whole 12 months ATAA membership
Judging - A panel of three judges will decide winners in each category.
Winners to be announced at the ATAA Annual Conference in Melbourne on October 18-19, 2025.
STAY TUNED FOR MORE INFORMATION SOON, AND IN THE NEXT EDITION OF THE ATAA BLAST! NEWS | National Speaker Working Group
| Our National Speaker Working Group is relatively new, but was responsible for arranging the guest speaker, and the recent National Speaker online presentation with Prent Penfold. Thank you if you were one of the 250 people who registered to attend our recent National Speaker presentation. You helped make this inaugural event a great success, and your support is appreciated.
Our next event is scheduled for 12th of July. Please mark this date in your diary and keep an eye on your inbox for details of who our invited speaker will be and where to register.
ps: We are on the hunt for one volunteer to help us with guest speaker selection and event planning. Please be in touch if you are interested, or you know and ATAA member who could make a great contribution.
| ATAA Marketing Working Group Update
| | The official ATAA email signature block. Are you using this email signature block yet? if not, why not? It's easy to download it and set it up as the footer in each of your new email messages, and in your replies to emails. This jpeg file (shown herewith) is available for ATAA members to download from the "Resource Library", and then include it in your own email signature block at the bottom of your emails. To find this file and download it, login to the ATAA website and use the menu option: Resources > Resource Library Folders > Association Documents > Marketing. | | | ATAA Conference Working Group (CWG) News
ATAA 2025 In-Person and Hybrid Conference
October 18 and 19 |
“The Future of Trading – Blending Classic Tactics with Smart Technology”
We’re thrilled to announce this year’s highly anticipated conference, where trading meets innovation! Whether you’re an experienced trader or just looking to sharpen your edge, this event is your opportunity to stay ahead of the curve in a rapidly evolving industry.
Why You Can’t Miss This:
- Expert Sessions: Gain invaluable insights from industry-leading trading specialists from both Australia and overseas over two packed days of learning.
- Actionable Strategies: Discover practical trading ideas, risk management tips, and how to leverage cutting-edge AI tools to boost your performance and profits.
- Unparalleled Networking: Connect with like-minded independent traders and industry professionals to expand your network and open new doors.
- Market Mastery: Learn strategies to navigate all market phases, especially during these uncertain times.
- Exclusive Gala Dinner: Socialise with speakers and fellow attendees in a relaxed, elegant setting.
- Premier Venue: Enjoy Melbourne’s vibrant central location, with discounted room rates available exclusively through conference registration.
Key Details:
- Dates: October 18–19, 2025
- Location: Central Melbourne
Mark your calendar now, and keep an eye on your inbox for registration details coming soon!
We can’t wait to welcome you in October for two incredible days of learning, networking, and inspiration. Let’s shape the future of trading together!
Alan Clement
ATAA (Conference) Director
| CHAPTER and Special Interest Group (SIG) news and updates
| ATAA Chapters, SIGs and Network groups
For the benefit of ATAA members everywhere, the ATAA has a number of: Chapters, and Special Interest Groups, and Network Groups. Current financial members are free and welcome to participate in any of these. We are hopeful that all of these groups will submit some information for publication in the Blast! News from time to time, to help our hundreds of readers understand more about the opportunities and benefits for ATAA members.
For the latest meeting information, check the ATAA website for details, and also scroll down the website home page to see the latest announcements, presentations and updates to the resource library.
| | ATAA Chapters (alpha order) meeting monthly
- Adelaide
- Brisbane
- Canberra
- Melbourne
- Newcastle
- Perth
- Sydney
| | SIGs and Networks (and contact names)
- Melbourne Quant SIG (Jim Haralambidis)
- RealTest Coders (online) Workshop (Chris Meakin, Robert Grigg)
- Bigalow Network (Romy Baker)
- Forex Network - FN (Romy Baker)
- MetaStock Users SIG (Jerry Bongard)
- FX SIG (Mike Smith)
- TA Practice SIG
See the ATAA website for latest information.
| | | A screenshot from the ATAA website Document Library showing where presentations are accessible
| The Canberra Chapter enjoyed our third meeting of 2025 in April in the Board Room of Eastlake Football Club.
Gabriel showed recent moves in the portfolio competition with many entrants suffering from the volatility in the markets reacting to the tariff decisions initiated abroad.
Bruce completed the ASX review, further demonstrating ASX dependence on International commodity and geopolitical changes occurring currently. Chris continued with his excellent series on rules-based trading including the variables of minimum daily volume, price decay based on average CPI, minimum turnover, minimum price, MA50 and net liquidity value.
Bruce gave our main presentation on the application of Elliot Wave discussing the history of the wave principle, unbreakable rules of Elliot Wave, motive (impulse) waves and Corrective (zigzag) waves. Bruce also outlined the integration of trend lines with waves and characteristics of waves that just happen to occur classically in CBA shares.
Our next meeting will be held on Tuesday, May 20 in the Boardroom at Eastlake FC in Griffith at 6.00pm. In addition to our regular ASX review and portfolio competition, Chris Meakin will continue his series on Rules Based Trading and our main presenter is still to confirm availability.
Remember to bring your portfolio selection to our next meeting. If you would like to enter the portfolio competition and cannot make it to the meeting, send your selection by email to: gabriel.spacca@ataa.asn.au.
Good trading and good health.
Mark Gleeson
ATAA Canberra Chapter President
[The Canberra Chapter generally meets on the third Tuesday each month.]
| | RealTest Coders online Workshop
| | | Last month’s RealTest Coders workshop (operating under the Melb. Quant SIG) was very successful, with participants discussing a number of items including a rather novel method of assessing the results of strategy back tests, as well as the introduction of a strategy on adaptive position sizing.
This month’s meeting (to be held on Monday the 12th May) will include discussion on a paper (Vince and Williams (2024) ‘The Ripple Effect of Daily New Lows’); feedback on the aforementioned adaptive position sizing strategy; and discussion on an AI-generated report about whether the Australian and US stock markets are Trend Following or Mean Reverting.
The meetings are aimed at competent users of RealTest, but new users and intending users are more than welcome to join. A number of participants have also formed small ‘coding buddy’ groups (2-4 users) to develop and code up strategies collaboratively.
Recordings of the meetings along with any associated material can be found in the RT Coders SIG forum here.
| LATEST NEWS: The May Melbourne chapter meeting (held last week - 8 May) featured a presentation from Mark Bennell describing the features of the "ABC Pullback Setup". The video recording will soon be in the ATAA website Library. Mark's presentation was preceded by Robert Brain sharing some price charts of a stock with the name of the stock hidden, and considering the question: "Should I have bought this stock?" - basically a hands-on chart interpretation session with lots of input from the 20 or so people in the room, and the more than 20 people in the Zoom session. And these broadcast presentations were followed by some great discussions with the guest speaker over dinner.
The Melbourne Chapter continues to host monthly hybrid meetings and we are still broadcasting the 2-hour segment of 6pm to 8pm by Zoom, and the recordings go into the ATAA website Resource Library - use the website menu: Resources > Presentations by Date. For those of you who are not able to be in the meeting room, you are missing: the invaluable networking (or "common gossip") from 5.15pm to 6pm (including free finger food), the interactions in the room during the broadcast session 6-8pm, and then further networking and guest speaker mingling over dinner after 8pm.
The one thing about networking at an in-person ATAA meeting is that you can "talk shop". That is, you can have an intelligent discussion with fellow ATAA members about the financial markets - and that's something that most of our members can't do at home, or in their regular circle of friends, because most of those people are simply not interested, or don't understand the nuances of the markets and of technical analysis.
All ATAA members who attend our meetings are given a "Door Prize" raffle ticket, with the winning tickets drawn during the mid-session break (when we change-over the speakers). You see, we still have a truck-load of pre-loved trading and technical analysis books to give away at our meetings with more coming, and these are used as the Door Prizes in the Member give-away. And some of these books are absolute gems - for free!
Don’t forget that public transport (tram) runs past the hotel front door, and there is ample car parking around the corner.
Robert Brain
ATAA Melb Chapter President and interim Secretary
(for the Council team: Paul Ash, Jim Haralambidis, Keith Mundy, Tony Hambling, Tony Leonard, Robert Grigg). | Sydney Chapter and
Bigalow Network and Forex Network (FN)
| Sydney Chapter - After a short break, the Sydney Chapter has recommenced monthly meetings with the next one on Tuesday 20 May. See the event details on the ATAA website.
Looking forward to hearing from you.
Romy Baker
0414 554 967 | Don't forget, we have a total of seven chapters around Australia, including: Brisbane, Perth and Newcastle as well as several Special Interest Groups (SIGs) in which members can participate. You can see a list of the seven chapters and their office-bearers on the website - use the menu option: ATAA Overview > Current Office-Bearers > Chapter Councillors > Subcommittees. See the ATAA website for latest meeting and event details.
- Adelaide Chapter generally meets in-person on the third Wednesday of the month.
- Perth Chapter generally meets on the third Thursday of the month.
- Brisbane Chapter generally meets... second Saturday of the month.
- MetaStock Users SIG - Contact Jerry Bongard, jerry.bongard@ataa.asn.au
- RealTest Coders Workshop (sub-group of the Quant SIG) - Meets online, generally on the second Monday of each month at 8:00 pm. EST (to give members in western states a better chance of attending). SIG Coordinators: Chris Meakin and Robert Grigg.
| About IFTA (International Federation of Technical Analysis) - It is the umbrella organisation for Technical Analyst societies around the world.
IFTA webinars: See the latest information about up-coming and past webinars on the IFTA website. | IFTA Update (Newsletter) - Call for Article and Society News for the June 2025 issue
The next submission deadline for the June 2025 issue of the IFTA Update is as follows:
| IFTA and ATAA members - ATAA members are automatically affiliate members of the International Federation of Technical Analysts. ATAA membership gives you access to IFTA resources including: certification programs, educational events and networking opportunities, including participation in the IFTA Conferences. The information below is the latest update from IFTA.
IFTA Update (quarterly newsletter) - The IFTA Update is a quarterly newsletter that is available to members of the ATAA.
| Join the ATAA to improve your understanding of how to
invest or trade successfully in the financial markets
focusing on the correct use and application of Technical Analysis
| |
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
and Trading Tips
| | | Should I have bought this stock? |
In the May Melbourne Chapter meeting Robert Brain led a hands-on workshop discussion for the 20 or so in-room participants and the 20+ online webinar participants. In this session Robert showed a price chart for a security (a stock, or ETF or whatever) with the last 4 weeks of price data hidden, and invited interactive audience input from in-the-room meeting participants and the remote webinar participants. The real question was: “Should I have bought this stock a month ago?” After viewing a few charts with indicators, and some discussion, the latest price data was shown, and some conclusions drawn.
The session was intended to address the questions: “How can we effectively use share price charts to analyse whether a stock should be bought or not? How can we interpret the likely future price action? and the various chart indicators that are available?”
The session was recorded and will soon be available in the ATAA website Resource Library – both a video recording and the slide deck. The session basically went as follows, noting that you should not look forward to the last couple of charts just yet, but try to decide whether you might have been tempted to buy this stock in early April.
Don’t forget that the price charts summarise the opinions and emotions
of the real market participants, and every price chart has a story to tell.
Stock Universe – Firstly, Robert picked a stock from the XKO index (the S&P/ASX 300). This index of 300 or so securities is widely used by trend traders and many ATAA members. For some discussion about this, including the stock liquidity of the index constituents, and some links to the definition of the index, see the slide deck (or the video recording).
First price chart – Below is the first view of the (daily) price chart for the stock in question today with the last 4 weeks of price data hidden. The name of the stock is not disclosed yet. We are considering the question: “Should I have bought this stock a month ago based on the price data shown on this chart?” Which chart indicators would you like to see to help you decide?
Note that in the last 5 weeks shown here, the index had rallied about 9 per cent. Could this continue?
|  |
First observation – In hindsight, we can see that the last visible candle on this chart was on Friday 4 April, just a couple of days after Donald Trump’s so-called Liberation Day where heavy tariffs were announced for goods from many countries – perhaps a dangerous situation to be considering a stock purchase.
Indicators – In the session we looked at a number of popular chart indicators including:
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30 week Moving Average on a weekly chart (aka Weinstein’s view), and his Stage Analysis.
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MACD – looking for a cross of the MACD line and its Signal line – both “Above” and “Below”, and whether MACD was below its own Zero Line.
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Stochastic
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RSI
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Momentum and a Moving Average of Momentum, and looking for divergence – either Bullish or Bearish Divergence.
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GMMA – Guppy Multiple Moving Average.
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Candlestick patterns.
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OBV and a Moving Average of OBV.
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Volume – is very important.
The price chart below shows the Stan Weinstein view of the stock – a weekly chart with both the 30 week SMA and the EMA. Note that the two MAs crossed in February and they were both then rising. We could say this was a rather bullish observation. However, could it continue?
|  | Other indicators? – There are too many charts showing other indicators to include here. Readers are encouraged to visit the ATAA website Resource Library and view/download the video when it is available there, and/or the slide deck. Observation comments will be included on the slides.
Revealing the stock – The stock being studied in this session was APA Group (code: APA). The price chart below shows the ensuing 4 weeks of price data that were hidden in the earlier charts. Note that the share price continued to rally at least 3 per cent. |  |
Momentum and Bearish Divergence – In the chart below, note that the stock made a Higher High in the period from “A” to “B” some three weeks later, but the Momentum indicator made a Lower High over the same time period from “C” to “D” – that’s bearish divergence which basically indicates a weakening of the share price. And the Moving Average of the Momentum had peaked and was falling over the same period. These observations are considered bearish by many traders and would have been enough to decide not to buy a position in this stock.
[Note that ideally a stock’s share price and an indicator like momentum will gently rise together, and fall together, and make new highs together, and new higher lows together.]
|  |
How did Weinstein go? – Below is the updated Weinstein chart showing the next four weeks of price action. Notice that the share price continued to rise on this weekly chart, and the two Moving Average curves also continued to rise. And the Stage Analysis indicator at the bottom of the chart continued to show Stage 2.
|  | Conclusions – With hindsight, some aggressive traders might say that the share price increase through April (on the daily chart above) was not enough to justify the risk of buying into this stock. The observations of some of the indicators (including RSI, not shown here, and momentum) were somewhat bearish and would dissuade many traders from taking a position. However, the medium term traders and investors might have looked at the weekly charts, and the Weinstein view, and considered that in hindsight it could have been worth taking a position. The bottom line here is that sometimes there are situations where some indicators show a buy, while others do not, and especially for a discretionary trader its a judgement call. And don’t forget to always pre-determine a stop loss level in case the price moves against you.
Happy, and safe, investing / trading
Robert Brain | ATAA Member Perks and Benefits
| If you're not an ATAA member, and you are considering joining, you might be interested to know there are many good reasons to sign-up, including:
- Learn how to protect your hard-earned capital - using wise stock selection, and money and risk management ideas;
- Invaluable education opportunities (with discounts for members);
- Huge and extensive Resource Library (access for members);
- Networking opportunities - meet with like-minded peers for trading and investing discussions;
- Special Interest Groups (SIGs) (only for members) - there are several;
- News and information;
- Online Forums;
- Annual ATAA Conference (discounted for members).
| In Closing
As I said at the top, my apologies continue for any odd formatting that you might find herein - font size or line spacing, etc - but these seem to be oddities in our CE email editor which are very elusive.
I do hope you have found this edition of the Blast! Monthly News both interesting and useful. Feel free to send my any feedback - good or bad.
Robert B. Brain
Blast! Newsletter Editor
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