| ATAA Blast! Newsletter #175 – December 2024
| | Dear ~~first_name~~
Welcome to the December edition of the ATAA Blast! Newsletter, and the last one for 2024 with the Christmas and New Year "summer holiday" season fast approaching. There won't be a Blast! edition in January - the next one will be early February 2025. So, from the Blast! editorial team, may everyone have a safe and prosperous summer holiday season.
| | | In this edition you can see the following, with links for an easy and speedy go-to to the relevant section below:
- ATAA National President's Update for December.
- ATAA Latest Website Resource Library updates for the latest month - With an update on the immensely useful and growing ATAA Resource Library, including the now hundreds of video session recordings from the SIGs and network groups.
- Online Discussion Forums - This resource is now growing in popularity in the ATAA website (for ATAA members only - login is required).
- ATAA National Board Update - The latest news from the national board of directors.
- List of all of the ATAA Chapters, SIGs and Network Groups - More opportunities for the ATAA members for networking and learning.
- The ATAA Conference(s) update - A report on the recent very successful ATAA Online Conference was mentioned last month, and this month there is a snippet regarding the next in-person ATAA Conference in October.
- Updates from the ATAA Chapters and SIGs: The next Bigalow Network online meeting is happening tonight, Friday 6 December. See details online here. Included below are updates for some chapters: Canberra, Melbourne - those that have submitted content. Thank you to: Mark (Canberra) for your ongoing contributions.
- IFTA information update: Latest information from IFTA.
- TECHNICAL ANALYSIS article - In this technical analysis article this month we look at the outlook for the markets in the December/January holiday season, influenced by: Christmas, New Year, summer holidays, Santa Rally and Donald Trump.
- Detailed benefits for ATAA members.
WARNING: When testing and proof reading this edition of the newsletter I noticed that in Google's Gmail that the Gmail Inbox shows a portion of this November edition, and some of last month's October newsletter. At this stage I am not sure of the best way to work around this issue.
As the national Marketing Director, I am still including key marketing phrases in this Blast!:- the ATAA Tag line in blue below, and the ATAA Elevator Pitch also in blue at the bottom of this email. Feel free to use these in your own correspondence to help encourage new members, and of course to remind existing members of why they are ATAA members.
I do hope you find this Blast! newsletter useful and interesting reading; but do feel free to tell us what you really think, and how we can improve it.
ps: Apologies continue for any odd formatting that you might find which I cannot resolve - font size or line spacing etc - as these seem to be oddities in our CE email editor.
Robert B Brain
Blast! Newsletter Editor
ATAA Marketing Director
(and ATAA Life Member)
| The ATAA is the knowledge network
for successfully using technical analysis
in financial market trading and investing
|
National President's Update – December 2024
November was a very busy time in managing the ATAA’s affairs. The first couple of weeks were taken up with liaising with our accountants and auditors to get our books in order and finalise our accounts for the 2023/24 financial year. As this was the first time in years that the board had initiated an audit by an external auditing organisation, it involved quite a bit of work with the auditors to make sure they had all the information they requested in order to compile their audit report. This also gave us an opportunity to clear up some relatively minor matters in our accounts that had stood unresolved for several years. I am happy to report that this resulted in a clean set of accounts for the year ending June 2024. The independent auditors did not find any issues of concern and gave us essentially a clean bill of health.
All this information, including the finalised Financial Accounts, President’s Report and Audit Report, were all presented at the ATAA AGM on the 13th of November. This AGM members information package is still available, to financial members only, through the relevant page on our web site. [Login to the website and use the website menu: ATAA Overview > Annual Reports.]
The AGM also resulted in an addition to our existing board. Richard Dale’s nomination to the board was approved by the members, and the rest of the board is very pleased to have somebody of Richard’s calibre and expertise on the board. There are still some open positions on the ATAA board, and nominations to fill those positions on an ad hoc basis are always welcome.
The board is working on some initiatives that have not yet come to fruition, mainly in improving our profile in the investing and trading communities, with a view to increasing our membership. This effort will intensify in the new year.
Merry Christmas to all, and have a safe holiday season.
Jim Haralambidis
ATAA National President
| ATAA Website - Resource Library Updates - recordings from November 2024
In case you missed the news, our ATAA Resource Library now has many presentations and recordings going back to 2008. You can drill down on these using the website menu: Resources > Presentations by Date. And alternative way to find something specific on a particular topic is to search the library using the menu option: Resources > Search Resource Library.
The materials recently added to the Resource Library in the latest month include:
- Thursday 14 November - Melbourne Chapter Hybrid meeting - Robert Grigg - My Trading History and experiences with IFTA. and Jim Haralambidis - Should I sell, or should I hold now? - An interactive exploration of attitudes to selling losing trades.
- Monday 18 November - Sydney Chapter meeting - Mary McNamara - A Deep Dive into the Markets. Darryl Nagel - How to gain an edge trading options using simple strategies.
- Saturday 19 October - ATAA 1-day Online Conference - session recordings from seven conference speakers (access restricted to the paying conference participants).
All of these items can be found from the ATAA website menu: Resources > Presentations by Date. Make sure to browse the earlier recordings in the Resource Library, because you might never know what you've been missing. And you can also search the Resource Library by keyword.
| | SIG and Network presentations in the Document Library - There is a growing collection of session recordings and other materials in a section of the ATAA website Resource Library. The latest one (from the Forex Network) can be found by following the menu (as shown in the screenshot below): Resources > Resource Library Folders, then expand the tree hierarchy under the Document Library heading: Member Resource Library > Presentations by Group. | | Presentations by Group - Session recordings for some of these ATAA groups can be found on the website:
- Bigalow Network
- Forex Network
- MEL Quant Traders SIG
- FX SIG
- Holy Grail Trader SIG
- MetaStock User Group SIG
- Technical Analysis Chat SIG.
| | | UPDATE:- More information about Chapters and SIGs? - One thing that has been missing from our ATAA website is some permanent information about our Chapters and Special Interest Groups (SIGs), including an overview of any speciality that they provide, and the meeting frequency, day of month and time of day. This information will be up on the website in the very near future.
Robert Brain
(Marketing Director) | ATAA Online Discussion Forums - This month's technical analysis article below is included in the online Discussion Forum in the "Markets" forum. If you have a view about this topic, then feel free to add your own comments.
Many of our SIG groups and Network Groups have discussion topics in the Online Discussion Forum. You can sign-up to receive update emails on specific topics as they are posted. Login and visit the ATAA Forum to see more details.
The most active forums currently include: Bigalow Network, MEL Quant Trader SIG, and "RealTest coders Workshop. Other active forums include: Adelaide Chapter, Brisbane Chapter, "Trading Strategies and Systems", "Indicators and Charting", "Trading Software and Tools" - just to name a few.
Check out the growing list of online discussion forums on the ATAA website on a range of T.A. and trading topics. And feel free to start a new discussion topic. The link to access the forum (in the website menu) is enabled after you login to the ATAA website.
Robert Brain
(Marketing Director) | |
ATAA National Board updates
| | |
Meeting Visitors - First Time Free - for Christmas meetings?
With our December meetings happening this month, you might want to encourage visitors and non-members to attend your December meeting. With carefully planned details and well-worded promotions, you might be able to attract a few new faces.And don't forget that first-time visitors to Chapter meetings are allowed to attend for free. Non-members are always welcome to attend ATAA meetings, and pay the $40 Visitor Fee. This is normally done online in advance when you register to attend the meeting. However, if you have not attended an ATAA meeting in the past, you are welcome to attend your first meeting for free - and preferably register on the ATAA website so that we will be expecting you as a special first-time visitor.
| ATAA Marketing Working Group Update
| |
The Marketing Working Group has arranged a new pull-up banner with a new QR code included. It arrived in time for last month's November Melbourne chapter meeting in South Yarra - and it looks very smart.
Robert B Brain
ATAA Marketing Director
| | | | The official ATAA email signature block. Are you using this email signature block yet? if not, why not? It's easy to download it and set it up as the footer in each of your new email messages, and in your replies to emails. This jpeg file (shown herewith) is available for ATAA members to download from the "Resource Library", and then include it in your own email signature block at the bottom of your emails. To find this file and download it, login to the ATAA website and use the menu option: Resources > Resource Library Folders > Association Documents > Marketing. | | | |
ATAA Conferences
Working Group
| | |
ATAA 2025 In-Person Conference
The Working Group has commenced preparations for the 2025 conference. We are currently exploring venue options in Melbourne and aim to finalise a selection within the next few weeks.
Thank you to everyone who participated in our brief survey on prospective attendance for the 2025 conference. Your feedback will be invaluable in helping us plan and deliver the best possible experience, whether you choose to attend in person or online.
Alan Clement
ATAA (Conference) Director
| CHAPTER and Special Interest Group (SIG) news and updates
| ATAA Chapters, SIGs and Network groups
For the benefit of ATAA members everywhere, the ATAA has a number of: Chapters, and Special Interest Groups, and Network Groups. Current financial members are free and welcome to participate in any of these. We are hopeful that all of these groups will submit some information for publication in the Blast! News from time to time, to help our hundreds of readers understand more about the opportunities and benefits for ATAA members.
For the latest meeting information, check the ATAA website for details, and also scroll down the website home page to see the latest announcements, presentations and updates to the resource library.
| | ATAA Chapters (alpha order) meeting monthly
- Adelaide
- Brisbane
- Canberra
- Melbourne
- Newcastle
- Perth
- Sydney
| | SIGs and Networks (and contact names)
- Melbourne Quant SIG (Jim Haralambidis)
- RealTest Coders (online) Workshop (Chris Meakin, Robert Grigg)
- Bigalow Network (Romy Baker)
- Forex Network - FN (Romy Baker)
- MetaStock Users SIG (Jerry Bongard)
- FX SIG (Mike Smith)
- TA Practice SIG
See the ATAA website for latest information.
| | | Bigalow Network and
ATAA Forex Network (FN)
| |
The Forex network - Continues to meet.
You are welcome to join us - If anyone would like to join the Bigalow or Forex Network meetings, please email the undersigned, Romy Baker. We would love to hear from you if you are interested so, please send us an email, or phone us.
Looking forward to hearing from you.
Romy Baker
ATAA Sydney Chapter
0414 554 967 |
The Canberra Chapter continues to have a small and dedicated in person following of around 10-12 members meeting at Eastlake Football Club.
At our November meeting, Bruce Taylor provided his popular ASX review looking at the macro ASX200 view and the movements of some blue-chip local stocks. Chris Meakin provided a final analysis on the rotational, systematic variations on Ray Dalio’s All Weather Portfolio. Each of the portfolios succeeded with good returns and we had an update on the local stock picking competition with Gabriel Spacca.
Our November meeting included our Canberra Chapter AGM and all of the current committee renominated to continue and Mark was nominated unopposed to continue as Chapter President.
We then had three summary presentations of the 2024 Conference presentations. These included: Brian Shannon’s session on ‘Multiple Timeframe Analysis with VWAP’ presented by Gabriel, Chris Weston’s session on a ‘Trader’s Roadmap to Success’ and Louise Bedford’s session ‘Investing Psychology secrets’ presented by Mark.
The meeting was held in the Boardroom where we will meet in 2025 and the new configuration increased participation throughout the meeting. We will have our end of year December meeting with a Quiz in the Limestone Room at Mercure Canberra located in Braddon. It will be great to see as many local members as possible prior to trading solo until our February meeting.
Good trading,good health and happy holidays.
Mark Gleeson
ATAA Canberra Chapter President [The Canberra Chapter generally meets on the third Tuesday each month.]
| At the monthly Melbourne Chapter hybrid meetings we continue to broadcast the 2-hour segment of 6pm to 8pm, and the recordings are in the ATAA website Resource Library - use the website menu: Resources > Presentations by Date.
In the November hybrid meeting we trialled another variation on presentations with Robert Grigg presenting a session (it will be an interview-type session) on "My trading History and Experiences with IFTA", and then Jim Haralambidis "Should I sell or should I hold now? An interactive exploration of attitudes to selling losing trades". This went very well, and the session was recorded.
The Chapter Council team is looking at new ideas to vary the monthly chapter meeting program - so stay tuned for news on this in 2025. In the meantime, we continue to run in-person hybrid meetings on the second Thursday each month (except, not in January), with the invaluable networking from 5.15pm to 6pm (including free finger food), then the broadcast session 6-8pm, followed by further networking and guest speaker mingling over dinner after 8pm. The broadcast segment is usually recorded and uploaded to the ATAA website soon after. If you missed the session, you can view the video recording; but you would have missed out on the great networking opportunities and the exchange of trading tips and knowledge that only happens in the room.
All ATAA members who attend our meetings are given a "Door Prize" raffle ticket, with the winning tickets drawn during the mid-session break (when we change-over the speakers). You see, we still have a truck-load of pre-loved trading and technical analysis books to give away at our meetings with more coming, and these are used as the Door Prizes in the Member give-away. And some of these books are absolute gems - for free!
Don’t forget that public transport (tram) runs past the hotel front door, and there is ample car parking around the corner.
Robert Brain
ATAA Melb Chapter President and interim Secretary
(for the Council team: Paul Ash, Jim Haralambidis, Keith Mundy, Tony Hambling, Tony Leonard, Robert Grigg). | Sydney Chapter meetings
The Sydney chapter continue to have monthly online meetings, and a bi-monthly get-together over dinner. Stay tuned for more details about upcoming events.
Sydney Chapter Council
[The Sydney Chapter normally meets online on the third Monday of each month, plus a bi-monthly dinner]
| Don't forget, we have a total of seven chapters around Australia, including: Brisbane, Perth and Newcastle as well as several Special Interest Groups (SIGs) in which members can participate. You can see a list of the seven chapters and their office-bearers on the website - use the menu option: ATAA Overview > Current Office-Bearers > Chapter Councillors > Subcommittees. See the ATAA website for latest meeting and event details.
- Adelaide Chapter generally meets in-person on the third Wednesday of the month.
- Perth Chapter generally meets on the third Thursday of the month.
- Brisbane Chapter generally meets... second Saturday of the month? TBC
- Newcastle Chapter generally meets ... Saturday in the month? TBA
- MetaStock Users SIG - Contact Jerry Bongard, jerry.bongard@ataa.asn.au
- RealTest Coders Workshop (sub-group of the Quant SIG) - Meets online, generally on the second Monday of each month at 8:00 pm. EST (to give members in western states a better chance of attending). SIG Coordinators: Chris Meakin and Robert Grigg.
| About IFTA (International Federation of Technical Analysis) - It is the umbrella organisation for Technical Analyst societies around the world.
IFTA webinars: See the latest information about up-coming and past webinars on the IFTA website. | The IFTA Journal 25 is available.
In case you missed this news last month, the 2025 IFTA Journal is available for viewing and download from the IFTA website. "I hope you enjoy reading the Journal and look forward to the many small discussions that regularly arise from this publication." - Dr. Rolf Wetzer, CFTe, MFTA, Journal Editor.
”You can't put a limit on anything. The more you dream, the farther you get.” - Michael Phelps
Inside this Issue (113 pages and 16 MB file size):
Articles
- Linton Price Targets, By David Linton, MFTA.
- Prediction is Very Difficult: Especially if It's About the Financial Markets, By Davide Pandini, Ph.D, MFTA, CFTe, CMT, CSTA.
- Trend-Adaption of Moving Averages (TAMA), By Dr. Patrick Winter
MFTA Papers
- How the Deltachart Order Flow and Divergence Delta Candles Work Together to Forecast the Price Movement in High Volatile Market, By Nashwan Mohammed Al-Thawr, MFTA.
- Using Renko Charts for Noise Reduction and Directional Insights in the US Equity Market: A Multi-Dimensional Approach Integrating Investment Factors, Sector Analysis, and Volatility Filters, By Loïc Bellina, CFTe, MFTA.
- The Similarities in Various Markets and Timeframes, Through Quantitative Comparison Methods, and Its Application to Trading Systems, By Nobuaki Kakimoto, CFTe, MFTA.
NAAIM Paper
- Chicken and Egg: Should you use the VIX to time the SPX? Or use the SPX to the VIX?, By Robert Hanna.
Book Review
- Technical Analysis for the Trading Professional, 2nd Edition, by Constance M. Brown, Reviewed by John Gajewski.
| IFTA and ATAA members - ATAA members are automatically affiliate members of the International Federation of Technical Analysts. ATAA membership gives you access to IFTA resources including: certification programs, educational events and networking opportunities, including participation in the IFTA Conferences. The information below is the latest update from IFTA.
IFTA Update (quarterly newsletter) - The IFTA Update is a quarterly newsletter that is available to members of the ATAA.
| Join the ATAA to improve your understanding of how to
invest or trade successfully in the financial markets
focusing on the correct use and application of Technical Analysis
| What’s in store in the markets for the upcoming Christmas and New Year holiday season?
| Introduction – The equity markets have been running hot since the US Presidential election in early November, with new record highs almost weekly. Can this continue? Now that the Christmas and New Year holiday season is looming, what do we normally see in the markets at this time of year? A Santa Rally perhaps? Has the equity market rally already started? Have we missed the rally, or is there more to come? Is Donald Trump affecting the equity markets performance? What can the equity market price charts tell us about market strength?
Lower holiday season volumes – On the Australian equity market it seems as though many traders and investors normally take a break over the Christmas and New Year holiday period. This is evidenced in the trading volumes over the period. Take a look at the weekly price chart below of the All Ordinaries (XAO) index over the last 3 years, and note the dip in weekly volumes in late December and early January each year. The red curves are the 5-week Moving Average of Volume (in the middle pane) and 5-week MA of Dollar Value traded (in the bottom pane).
|  | What does the lower weekly volume (and value) mean for traders and investors who want to participate in the market during this period? Firstly it means that a security that is not very liquid could be even less liquid than normal – meaning that you might not be able to sell quickly should you wish to. So it can pay to be careful about your so-called Stock Universe – why run a market scan over all securities in the market, when more than half of them are not liquid enough to trade with confidence?
Another point here is that sometimes stocks can rally during this period, and if you are not participating in the market then you might be missing out [this is not a recommendation to participate in the markets].
So if the daily (and weekly) trading volumes are lower over the summer holiday period, when do they return to normal? This seems to coincide with the expected end of the summer holiday for the average office worker – either late in the second week of January, or into the third week of January.
Recent market performance (Australia) – Take a look at the next chart below – a weekly chart of the All Ordinaries (XAO) index from March 2023. Note that the index made a low in October last year, and has mostly rallied in the 16 or so months since then, and is up about 25 per cent from those lows in October 2023 – more than one year.
|  | Recent market performance (USA) – Now take a look at the next chart below – a weekly chart of the S&P500 from late 2021. |  | Note in the chart above that the S&P500 index bottomed in October 2022, then rallied and retraced to form a higher trough a year later in October 2023, then continued its bull run. And that bull run is still in place today.
Santa Rally? – In the weeks leading up to the Christmas period each year it is not uncommon to hear people talk about the so-called Santa Rally. Most of the people who initiate this discussion are the media commentators or share brokers and analysts, who perhaps have something to gain from talking about it – many people are always interested to hear these news stories and try to profit from it.
At around Christmas time in any year, if retail investors around the world thought that a Santa Rally might be getting under way, the excitement and enthusiasm might build and they would feel compelled to participate in the rally – FoMO (Fear of Missing Out) – and rush in and buy some shares (this is the underlying emotion of greed that tends to drive many share market purchase decisions).
However, perhaps the notion of a Santa Rally was actually devised by some Wall Street heavies to falsely promote participation in the markets? Shock, horror, gasp! You don't really think that do you?
The Yale Hirsch definition – The original term Santa Rally is reputed to be attributed to Yale Hirsch, editor in chief of the Stock Trader's Almanac, in 1972. His definition reads as follows: "... the last five trading days of the year plus the first two of the New Year."
In spite of this, there are other definitions getting around, as follows...
Investopedia offers a definition and explanation for the term Santa Rally (aka Christmas Rally): "A surge in the price of stocks that often occurs in the week between Christmas and New Year's Day. There are numerous explanations for the Santa Claus Rally phenomenon, including tax considerations, happiness around Wall Street, people investing their Christmas bonuses and the fact that the pessimists are usually on vacation this week."
And another definition: "Many consider the Santa Claus rally to be a result of people buying stocks in anticipation of the rise in stock prices during the month of January, otherwise known as the January Effect."
Remember the market sentiment – One key point made by Yale Hirsch all those years ago was that the market sentiment over this period was indicative of the likely market sentiment in the month, and the year, ahead. That is, a Santa Rally over this short period 7-trading day period would indicate a positive market sentiment, and as we know from Dow Theory, once a bullish (or bearish) market sentiment is established (as demonstrated by a trend), it is likely to continue.
| How about the historical performance on the Australian market? – If we look back at the Australian market over the years, it is difficult to see a strict-definition Santa rally occurring frequently. In fact, there are some years where the market has rallied in the weeks before Christmas, and then paused from Christmas to New Year. [For some real, relevant snap shots from 2008 to 2023 see my own informational web page.
Donald J Trump – Since the US Presidential election in early November, many of the major equity markets around the world have been rallying. Some commentators have been declaring that the markets believe that Trump is business-friendly, and corporate-friendly, in spite of his tariff and border/immigration threats. He will officially take office on 20 January 2025, and until then is only the president-elect. This has not stopped him from declaring (threatening) a range of actions once he takes office. The financial markets will be factoring in his current threats and promises, and if any of them are not made good, the markets might react accordingly. So, who knows precisely that is in store for the markets from late January?
Don’t forget the Presidential Cycle – One phenomenon that is well documented is the 4-year US Presidential Cycle. The charts for this cycle cover a 4-year period from the first calendar year since the US election. A sample of this is shown below (source: Arbitrage Trader, LinkedIn). The line on this price chart shows the performance of the US market averaged over a number of years, with the market typically rising about 5 per cent in the first year. Will that happen over the next few months? That is up to Trump, and how he performs. And I strongly encourage readers to do their own research into this phenomenon. |  | Can we discern anything from the charts? – Focus on the chart above of the S&P500, with three technical analysis indicators at the bottom – MACD, RSI, and Price Momentum Oscillator. Around half way along the time scale of the chart these indicators look somewhat bullish. Right now, though, while the index continues to make new highs in most weeks, it is difficult to draw a solid conclusion from these indicators.
Summary – I can’t draw any overall conclusion about the markets here (I'm not allowed to); but in this article we have mentioned a number of aspects that could influence the financial markets in the months ahead, and we encourage readers to do their own research, and perform their own technical analysis, and to form their own opinions. One thing that I can say, however, is to remind you that one of the six tenets of Dow Theory basically says that once an uptrend is in place (ie. higher peaks and higher troughs), then it is likely to continue until it is confirmed to have ended. As some commentators have said over the years: “if the music is still playing, then keep dancing”. And don’t forget to have a good exit strategy ready in case the markets turn.
| Author: Robert B Brain
(c) Copyright, Brainy, December 2024
| ATAA Member Perks and Benefits
| If you're not an ATAA member, and you are considering joining, you might be interested to know there are many good reasons to sign-up, including:
- Invaluable education opportunities (with discounts for members);
- Huge and extensive Resource Library (access for members);
- Networking opportunities - meet with like-minded peers for trading and investing discussions;
- Special Interest Groups (SIGs) (only for members) - there are several;
- News and information;
- Online Forums;
- Annual ATAA Conference (discounted for members).
| As I said at the top, my apologies continue for any odd formatting that you might find herein - font size or line spacing, etc - but these seem to be oddities in our CE email editor which are very elusive.
I do hope you have found this edition of the Blast! Monthly News interesting and useful. it took me longer than expected to compile this edition, but then there is a lot more news and information than normal. If not, or if you have any feedback, please feel free to email me directly.
Robert B. Brain
Blast! Newsletter Editor
| |