| ATAA Blast! Newsletter #173 – October 2024
| Dear ~~first_name~~
Welcome to the October edition of the ATAA Blast! Newsletter. In this edition of the ATAA Blast! newsletter you will see (with links for an easy and speedy goto to the relevant section below):
- ATAA National President's Update for October.
- ATAA Latest Website Resource Library updates for the latest month - With an update on the immensely useful and growing ATAA Resource Library, including the now hundreds of video session recordings from the SIGs and network groups.
- Online Discussion Forums - This resource is now growing in popularity in the ATAA website (for ATAA members only - login is required).
- ATAA National Board Update - The latest news from the national board of directors, including an update from the Marketing group about the recent General Member Survey, with lots of prompts for action to increase membership.
- List of all of the ATAA Chapters, SIGs and Network Groups - more opportunities for the ATAA members for networking and learning.
- The ATAA Conference(s) update - An update for the upcoming ATAA Conference(s): an online event in just a few days time (you need to hurry to register), and a regular ATAA in-person conference late in 2025.
- Updates from the ATAA Chapters and SIGs: Canberra, Melbourne, Sydney, and SIGs - or at least from those that have submitted content. Thank you to: Mark (Canberra) for your ongoing contributions.
- IFTA Update: Latest information from IFTA.
- TECHNICAL ANALYSIS article - In this technical analysis article this month, I am showing you a few price charts with the last month's worth of price data hidden, and I ask you the question: "Should I have bought this stock a month ago?" I am including a couple of popular chart indicators to help with your deliberation. At the end of the article I show you which stock it is, and whether in hindsight I should have bought it in early August or not. This material is a prelude to a workshop segment in the upcoming Melb Chapter Hybrid session on Thursday this week 10th October, where the session will be interactive for both the in-person attendees and the remote webinar participants. Hopefully this segment will help to sharpen your technical analysis skills and knowledge, and hopefully you can join in the session on Thursday this week.
- Detailed benefits for ATAA members.
As the national Marketing Director, I am including key marketing phrases in this Blast!, including the ATAA Tag line in blue below, and the ATAA Elevator Pitch also in blue at the bottom of this email. Feel free to use these in your own correspondence to help encourage new members, and of course to remind existing members of why they are ATAA members.
I do hope you find this Blast! newsletter useful and interesting reading; but do feel free to tell us what you really think, and how we can improve it.
ps: Apologies continue for any odd formatting that you might find - font size or line spacing etc - but these seem to be oddities in our CE email editor.
Robert B Brain
Blast! Newsletter Editor
ATAA Marketing Director
(and ATAA Life Member)
| The ATAA is the knowledge network
for successfully using technical analysis
in financial market trading and investing
|
National President's Update – October 2024
The ATAA National Conference for 2024 will be online, on Saturday, October 19. This event will give us an opportunity to evaluate the online versus the in-person option, from both the organisational and the financial sides. This year’s conference is all ready to go, and it will feature six well-known and credentialed speakers and will last one full day. Please go to the ATAA web site for full information and to register. It is only $99 for members and $199 for non-members, providing excellent value for money.
The ATAA AGM is coming up next month, on the 13th of November 2024. Besides providing an update to the members on the status of our organisation, it is also time for renewal, especially on the board. The 2023 AGM resulted in a largely new board, with only a few of the previous board members staying on. We started off 2024 with ten directors, seven of whom were newly elected, but two directors resigned during the year, due to their time commitments, to end up with eight.
As the ATAA is a volunteer organisation, it depends on its members to donate some of their time to helping run it. I would urge all members to consider whether they should nominate for a board position, if they are able to do so and have the relevant background. The call for board nominations went out last Friday the 4th of October, and nominations are due by the 16th of October.
| ATAA Website - Resource Library Updates - recordings from September 2024
In case you've missed the materials recently added to the resource library, here's a brief list of those added in the latest month:
- 3 September -STANZ - Huajun Li - An Overview of the Asian Market.
- 12 September - Melbourne Chapter hybrid meeting - Alan Clement - Global Markets Quarterly Technical Outlook, and Alan Clement - Become a Trading Cyborg: Harness AI to Enhance Your Trading Process and Results.
- 17 September - Canberra Chapter meeting - Richard Ringrose - Is this time in the Market different?
All of these items can be found from the ATAA website menu: Resources > Presentations by Date. Make sure to browse the earlier recordings in the Resource Library, because you might never know what you've been missing. And you can also search the Resource Library by keyword.
| | SIG and Network presentations in the Document Library - There is a growing collection of session recordings and other materials in a section of the ATAA website Resource Library. The latest one (from the Forex Network) can be found by following the menu (as shown in the screenshot below): Resources > Resource Library Folders, then expand the tree hierarchy under the Document Library heading: Member Resource Library > Presentations by Group. | | Presentations by Group - Session recordings for some of these ATAA groups can be found on the website:
- Bigalow Network
- Forex Network
- MEL Quant Traders SIG
- FX SIG
- Holy Grail Trader SIG
- MetaStock User Group SIG
- Technical Analysis Chat SIG.
| | | UPDATE:- More information about Chapters and SIGs? - One thing that has been missing from our ATAA website is some permanent information about our Chapters and Special Interest Groups (SIGs), including an overview of any speciality that they provide, and the meeting frequency, day of month and time of day. We are in the process of gathering this information, and it will be up on the website in the very near future.
Robert Brain
(Marketing Director) | ATAA Online Discussion Forums - Some of our SIG groups and Network Groups have discussion topics in the Online Discussion Forum.
The most active forums currently include: Bigalow Network (31 threads and 40 posts), and the MEL Quant Trader SIG (28 threads and 81 posts).
Check out the growing list of online discussion forums on the ATAA website, on a range of T.A. and trading topics. And feel free to start a new discussion topic. The link to access the forum (in the website menu) is enabled after you login to the ATAA website.
Robert Brain
(Marketing Director) | |
ATAA National Board updates
| | |
Meeting Visitors - First Time Free
Don't forget that first-time visitors to Chapter meetings are allowed to attend for free. Non-members are always welcome to attend ATAA meetings, and pay the $40 Visitor Fee. This is normally done online in advance when you register to attend the meeting. However, if you have not attended an ATAA meeting in the past, you are welcome to attend your first meeting for free - and preferably register on the ATAA website so that we will be expecting you as a special first-time visitor.
| ATAA Marketing Working Group Update
Chapter office bearers and SIG coordinators and Network Group coordinators - Last month I mentioned here that there are some things that our chapter and SIG coordinators can do to help us all keep our existing members when their membership renewal time comes around, and to also bring in and welcome new members. Key points from the recent (July) General Member Survey are included in the Survey Results Summery document which you can download and view using the ATAA website menu options: Resources > Resource Library Folders > Document Library > Association Documents > Survey Results. Then you can see the Survey Summary PDF document, and download it.
Also, I have uploaded a recent Marketing Working Group (WG) Update document for the general information of ATAA members. Find it using same menu options described above, and looking in the Marketing folder.
Robert B Brain
ATAA Marketing Director
| | The official ATAA email signature block. Are you using this email signature block yet? if not, why not? It's easy to download it and set it up as the footer in each of your new email messages, and in your replies to emails. This jpeg file (shown herewith) is available for ATAA members to download from the "Resource Library", and then include it in your own email signature block at the bottom of your emails. To find this file and download it, login to the ATAA website and use the menu option: Resources > Resource Library Folders > Association Documents > Marketing. | | | |
ATAA Conferences
Working Group
| | |  | ATAA 2024 Multi-Speaker Online Conference – 19th October
The ATAA 2024 Online Conference will be held later this month on the 19th of October. If you haven’t yet registered, head over to the sign-up page and click the "Register Now" button to claim your spot!
This special one-day online event is a rare opportunity to hear from a group of top-calibre and inspiring speakers from both Australia and overseas, covering topics specifically targeted at independent traders and investors. Whether you are a beginner, improving or advanced trader / investor, you’ll want to be a part of it!
- Hear from top flight industry professionals, Kevin Davey (USA), Brian Shannon (USA), Louise Bedford, Mark Bennell, Adrian Reid and Chris Weston.Get full details of speakers and their bios here.
- Learn practical trading ideas and insights to help supercharge your trading performance.
- Uncover powerful mindset and risk-management techniques that could enhance your bottom line.
- Join the conference from the comfort of your own home or office.
- Full conference programme available here.
Registration is just $AU 99 for current ATAA Members, and $AU 199 for non-members (including a trial ATAA membership).
Don't miss this opportunity to upskill your trading business and
Links to join the conference webinar will be emailed to you a few days before the event. All session recordings will be made available to you following the conference.
Alan Clement
ATAA (Conference) Director
| CHAPTER and Special Interest Group (SIG) news and updates
| ATAA Chapters, SIGs and Network groups
For the benefit of ATAA members everywhere, the ATAA has a number of: Chapters, and Special Interest Groups, and Network Groups. Current financial members are free and welcome to participate in any of these. We are hopeful that all of these groups will submit some information for publication in the Blast! News from time to time, to help our hundreds of readers understand more about the opportunities and benefits for ATAA members.
For the latest meeting information, check the ATAA website for details, and also scroll down the website home page to see the latest announcements, presentations and updates to the resource library.
| | ATAA Chapters (alpha order) meeting monthly
- Adelaide
- Brisbane
- Canberra
- Melbourne
- Newcastle
- Perth
- Sydney
| | SIGs and Networks (and contact names)
- Melbourne Quant SIG (Jim Haralambidis)
- RealTest Coders (online) Workshop (Chris Meakin, Robert Grigg)
- Bigalow Network (Romy Baker)
- Forex Network - FN (Romy Baker)
- MetaStock Users SIG (Jerry Bongard)
- FX SIG (Mike Smith)
- TA Practice SIG
See the ATAA website for latest information.
| | | Bigalow Network and
ATAA Forex Network (FN)
| |
The Forex network - Continues to meet. Recordings of meetings can be found in the resource library.
You are welcome to join us - If anyone would like to join the Bigalow or Forex Network meetings, please email the undersigned, Romy Baker. We would love to hear from you if you are interested so, please send us an email, or phone us.
Looking forward to hearing from you.
Romy Baker
ATAA Sydney Chapter
0414 554 967 |
The Canberra Chapter continues to have a small and dedicated in-person following of around 10 members and our online presentations are attracting an additional 20+ participants whenever we have a hybrid meeting.
In September, Bruce Taylor provided his popular ASX review looking at the macro ASX200 view and the movements of some blue-chip local stocks. Chris Meakin provided an update on the rotational, systematic variations on Ray Dalio’s All Weather Portfolio and we had an update on the local stock picking competition by Gabriel Spacca.
Richard Ringrose provided an excellent main presentation entitled ‘Is this time in the market different?’ Richard demonstrated, with charts, the effects of recurring world and economic events, such as the drop-in US interest rates, on Indices and the market generally. A recording of the presentation is in the resource library for members to watch again or if you missed the presentation on September 17.
One of Richard’s themes on interest rates was echoed in an article in the AFR Weekend edition of September 21-22.
Our October in person meeting on Tuesday, October 15 will see a return of the popular ‘This is what I have recently traded’ series incorporating an explanation of how the trades were set up, executed and completed. Presenters include Gabriel Spacca, Chris Meakin and Frances and will likely cover discretionary, systematic and options trading.
Format wise we will trial Pizzas to be served around 7.00pm to our meeting room and will be hoping some long-lost members will be able to join us in our quiet meeting room for further discussion.
Good trading and good health,
Mark Gleeson
ATAA Canberra Chapter President
[The Canberra Chapter generally meets on the third Tuesday each month.]
| At the upcoming monthly Melbourne Chapter hybrid meeting (Thursday 10 October) Robert will be trialling a new meeting segment entitled: "Should I have bought this stock a month ago?" A very similar exercise is included in this edition of the Blast! news below. Everyone is welcome to use the article below as a practise and then join the Melbourne hybrid session on Thursday, either in-person or online, to test your prowess.
We have continued to run in-person hybrid meetings on the second Thursday each month, with the invaluable networking from 5.15pm to 6pm (including free finger food), then the broadcast session 6-8pm, followed by further networking and guest speaker mingling over dinner after 8pm. The broadcast segment is usually recorded and uploaded to the ATAA website soon after. If you missed the session, you can view the video recording; but you would have missed out on the great networking opportunities and the exchange of trading tips and knowledge that only happens in the room.
All ATAA members who attend our meetings are given a "Door Prize" raffle ticket, with the winning tickets drawn during the mid-session break (when we change-over the speakers). You see, we still have a truck-load of pre-loved trading and technical analysis books to give away at our meetings with more coming, and these are used as the Door Prizes in the Member give-away. And some of these books are absolute gems - for free!
Don’t forget that public transport (tram) runs past the hotel front door, and there is ample car parking around the corner.
Robert Brain
ATAA Melb Chapter President and interim Secretary
(for the Council team: Paul Ash, Jim Haralambidis, Keith Mundy, Tony Hambling, Tony Leonard, Robert Grigg). | Sydney Chapter meetings
The Sydney chapter continue to have monthly online meetings, and a bi-monthly get-together over dinner. Stay tuned for more details about upcoming events.
Sydney Chapter Council
[The Sydney Chapter normally meets online on the third Monday of each month, plus a bi-monthly dinner]
| Don't forget, we have a total of seven chapters around Australia, including: Brisbane, Perth and Newcastle as well as several Special Interest Groups (SIGs) in which members can participate. You can see a list of the seven chapters and their office-bearers on the website - use the menu option: ATAA Overview > Current Office-Bearers > Chapter Councillors > Subcommittees. See the ATAA website for latest meeting and event details.
- Adelaide Chapter generally meets in-person on the third Wednesday of the month.
- Perth Chapter generally meets on the third Thursday of the month.
- Brisbane Chapter generally meets... second Saturday of the month? TBC
- Newcastle Chapter generally meets ... Saturday in the month? TBA
- MetaStock Users SIG - Contact Jerry Bongard, jerry.bongard@ataa.asn.au
- RealTest Coders Workshop (sub-group of the Quant SIG) - Meets online, generally on the second Monday of each month at 8:00 pm. EST (to give members in western states a better chance of attending). SIG Coordinators: Chris Meakin and Robert Grigg.
| 2024 IFTA International Conference in China
The 2024 IFTA International Conference took place a few days ago - 4-6 October 2024 - at the BFA International Convention Center in Boao, China.
Promotional comments included: Welcome everyone to China’s Boao of Hainan Island, to participate in the grand occasion of the IFTA conference. Here, we will delve into the theme of “New Fusion and Intellectual Innovation: Shaping the future.” exploring the harmonious integration of new quality productivity and traditional productivity, as well as how artificial intelligence leads us towards a brighter tomorrow.
| About IFTA (International Federation of Technical Analysis) - It is the umbrella organisation for Technical Analyst societies around the world.
IFTA webinars: See the latest information about up-coming and past webinars on the IFTA website here. | The IFTA Update is a quarterly newsletter that is available to members of the ATAA. The last issue is still available and contains the following articles:
- President's Report to Colleagues
- Member News
- IFTA 2024 Conference - Hainan, China
- Congratulations New CFTes!
- Where Macro & Behavioural Technical Analysis Meet
- Calendar-at-a-Glance
- Benefits of Membership
- Memoriam
- Call for Board Nominations
- and more
| IFTA and ATAA members - ATAA members are automatically affiliate members of the International Federation of Technical Analysts. ATAA membership gives you access to IFTA resources including: certification programs, educational events and networking opportunities, including participation in the IFTA Conferences. The information below is the latest update from IFTA.
IFTA Journal 24 (a professional journal published by IFTA) - We are pleased to announce that the 2024 IFTA Journal is now available for viewing and download from the IFTA website. (Note that it is a 79 pages PDF, and 16MB in size).
IFTA Update (quarterly newsletter) - The IFTA Update is a quarterly newsletter that is available to members of the ATAA.
| Join the ATAA to improve your understanding of how to
invest or trade successfully in the financial markets
focusing on the correct use and application of Technical Analysis
| Should I have bought these shares a month ago?
| In this article we will show a price chart for a security (a stock, or ETF or whatever), with the last four weeks or so of price data hidden (from 2nd September), and we will ask you this question: “Should I have bought this security a month ago?” Once you have decided whether we should have bought it or not, we will then show another price chart with all of the price action included so that you can see whether your decision was right or wrong over those subsequent four weeks.
This article is appearing in the October edition of the ATAA Blast! news and walks through this exercise, and includes some price charts with some technical analysis chart indicators included. The gist of this article will be repeated in the October ATAA Melbourne chapter Hybrid meeting on Thursday 10 October where the in-person participants, and the webinar participants, will all be invited to request their own favourite chart indicators to be included on the chart before making a decision.
In the Chapter Hybrid meeting Robert can add a chart indicator to the chart, and show you the daily, or weekly, or monthly price data. We can view a candle chart, or line chart, or HLC chart, or whatever you want – that’s your call during the meeting. After some discussion, and some sharing of opinions, Robert will display the stock performance over the last four weeks so as to reveal whether we should have, or should not have, bought this stock.
Of course, until the end of the exercise, the name of the stock in question will not be divulged.
In this exercise you will have two opportunities: (1) to show us how good your stock-picking is, and (2) the opportunity to pick up some tips from others about stock-picking. To give you a clue, we might use a security from the S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) index to help guarantee liquidity.
Firstly, let’s select a stock from the XKO index – S&P/ASX 300.
Why the XKO index?
After a little research among our own network of traders and investors (done during informal ATAA and BullCharts User Group networking sessions), a significant number of these people said that they use the XKO index as their own Stock Universe. We also have the following references:
“The XKO index consists of all 200 of the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO index) companies plus 100 smaller-cap companies that have market capitalisations above ~$100 million (AUD).” [Source: https://www.asx300list.com/ ]
“The S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) provides broad exposure to the Australian share market and contains all ASX 200 companies and approximately 100 smaller-cap shares. It accounts for ~84% of Australia's equity market (August 2024).” [source: https://www.marketindex.com.au/asx300 ]
“The S&P/ASX 300 is designed to provide investors with broader exposure to the Australian equity market. The index is liquid and float-adjusted, and it measures up to 300 of Australia’s largest securities by float-adjusted market capitalization. The S&P/ASX 300 index covers the large-cap, mid-cap, and small-cap components of the S&P/ASX Index Series. This index is designed to address investment managers' needs to benchmark against a broad opportunity set characterized by sufficient size and liquidity. Franking credit versions of the index are also available.” [Source: https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-asx-300/#overview ]
See more XKO index details from SPGlobal:
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/idsenhancedfactsheet/file.pdf?calcFrequency=M&force_download=true&hostIdentifier=48190c8c-42c4-46af-8d1a-0cd5db894797&indexId=124612
Are the XKO stocks liquid enough to trade?
That's a great question. For example, CVN (Carnarvon Energy LTD) – as at 2 October, the weekly average Value traded for the last 5 rolling weeks was: $958,000; and the daily average Value traded for the previous 5 days was: $239,274 This would enable us to take a position up to about $10,000 which would be less than 5% of the Value traded daily (a liquidity rule that many traders use).
Below is the first chart. It is a daily candle chart showing price data from late July up until 2nd September with a 14-day SMA. The next few weeks of price data is hidden at this stage. The daily volumes are shown in the lower pane (with a 5-day EMA of Volume).
|  | |
The next price chart is basically the same, except that the lower pane shows the daily Value traded instead of volume, plus a 5-day EMA of Value traded. Does this help you decide whether we should have bought it or not? | The next price chart is basically the same again, except that the lower pane shows the MACD instead of volume. | The MACD shown in the above chart shows the MACD "crossing Above" its own Signal Line. Many traders see this as a very bullish observation, especially if it occurs below the MACD zero level.
The next price chart is basically the same again, except that the lower pane shows the RSI instead of volume. | The next price chart is basically the same again, except that the lower pane shows the Stochastic Oscillator instead of volume. |  | * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
NOW! STOP HERE!!
Before continuing to read this article below, you need to decide whether in hindsight we should have bought this stock a month ago.
Once you have decided, please continue to read the material below, and see if your call was a good one or not.
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
* S T O P H E R E *
* S T O P H E R E *
* S T O P H E R E *
* S T O P H E R E *
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
Above are the price chart with various indicators showing the price action from late July to 2 September. In those charts the price action after 2 September is hidden (using the Training Mode in the BullCharts charting software).
Below are the same charts but with the price action and stock code and name displayed. |  | | Chart with volume showing all price data.
Note the strong uptrend.
|  | Chart with daily sales value showing all price data.
Note the strong uptrend.
| | |
 | | Chart with all price data and MACD.
|  | Chart with all price data and Stochastic Oscillator.
| | |
 | | Chart with all price data and RSI.
| | |
Summary
The stock in this study was Regis Healthcare (REG) which rose more than 50 per cent over two months from early August to early October
How did you go? Did you make a decision to buy or not buy? And was your decision a good one?
Hopefully this exercise was useful for you.
Tune into the Melbourne Chapter Hybrid session on Thursday 10 October for a live version of this exercise (with a different stock!) where you will have another chance to decide whether or not: “Should I have bought this stock (a month ago)?”
Feedback please - Feel free to send me feedback on this article: the concept; was it useful? Should we do more of these? Should we include a "Should I have bought these shares a month ago?" segment in our chapter meetings? Feel free to tell us anything you like about this article.
Author: Robert B Brain
(c) Copyright, Brainy, October 2024 | ATAA Member Perks and Benefits
| If you're not an ATAA member, and you are considering joining, you might be interested to know there are many good reasons to sign-up, including:
- Invaluable education opportunities (with discounts for members);
- Huge and extensive Resource Library (access for members);
- Networking opportunities - meet with like-minded peers for trading and investing discussions;
- Special Interest Groups (SIGs) (only for members) - there are several;
- News and information;
- Online Forums;
- Annual ATAA Conference (discounted for members).
| As I said at the top, my apologies continue for any odd formatting that you might find herein - font size or line spacing, etc - but these seem to be oddities in our CE email editor which are very elusive.
I do hope you have found this edition of the Blast! Monthly News interesting and useful. it took me longer than expected to compile this edition, but then there is a lot more news and information than normal. If not, or if you have any feedback, please feel free to email me directly.
Robert B. Brain
Blast! Newsletter Editor
| |