Robert Vagg joined the ATAA in 2000, continuing a long interest in stock market ‘charting’ that began with the Poseidon adventure of the late 1960s. He has combined a career in scientific research and education with applied finance training in both fundamental and technical analysis and now spends his time functioning as an independent securities analyst, applying familiar scientific methods to quantitative research on financial markets. In addition to membership of the ATAA, Robert is a frequent presenter for the Australian Investors Association and contributes regular columns in its Investors’ Voice and Equities Bulletin newsletters. He also is a fellow of the Financial Services Institute of Australasia, a fellow of the Royal Australian Chemical Institute, an emeritus professor of Macquarie University and a former president of the Royal Society of New South Wales, the first learned society established in Australia. His finance research interests range from the long-term behaviour of stock markets, to wave analysis, through to the development of short-term computer-based trading algorithms.
History suggests that the Australian stock market has just commenced a five-year bull market growth phase that likely will see the All Ordinaries Price Index reach a target value around 10,650 by late 2017. This analysis is based on the identification of systematic growth cycles that have existed in the Australian and US equities markets, and their underlying economies, since the late 19th century. These cycles mirror the two-phase growth-plus-consolidation patterns that are seen throughout our nature environment. They not only provide a blueprint for market highs and lows, but they also define the stock market?s normal volatility limits and its likely major turning points.
The ?Fibonacci (or Golden) Ratio?, with an approximate value 0.618, is recognisable throughout the natural world in growth patterns as diverse as the shapes of flowers, the positioning of tree branches, and the spiral forms of nautilus shells, cyclones and distant galaxies. Technical analysts are familiar with its importance for describing regular price movements in financial markets. This presentation will describe exactly WHY the number appears when both the natural and financial worlds are analysed.