Aubourg, Peter

Peter Aubourg is a full-time trader. He began trading in 2007 after a 30-year engineering career in design and development of automated machinery and robotics.  Peter created a design process called systematic innovation, which he applied to the design of systems and machinery.  He now applies the same process to design of trading systems. The creation of trading systems is treated as a research and development process, applied from an engineering/scientific perspective.

Presentation by Peter Aubourg and Darryl Nagel

This month we look at the Stochastic Oscillator, then we will scratch the Ichimoku and have a quick detour to the Williams % R along the way. All these indicators have one thing in common; they are fenced in by the highs and lows. They can never escape! They are range based indicators.   A stochastic process is one which combines predictable actions and a random element.  That sounds just like trading!  

The construction of the Ichimoku is examined by Peter and then an overview of the trading process is presented by Darryl.

This indicator is one of the “chunk and lump” style of indicators.  ( A specialty of its inventor Welles Wilder).   The UP moves and the DOWN moves are chunked out of the data and then lumped together to create the relative strength.  A versatile indicator.  It can be used in the short term to measure the strength and decisiveness of a move, to gauge “over bought” or  “over sold”.   In the longer term it can be used to measure the strength of a trend.   It is an indicator useful for both mean revert trading and trend trading.

Indicators are used throughout technical trading as components of trading systems.   Each meeting, a selected indicator will be dismantled, serviced, adjusted and rebuilt.  We will look at what it is trying to do, how it works and how can we use it in our trading.

This month we will do a quick overview of  the MACD indicator.

Indicators are used thought technical trading as components of trading systems.  Each meeting a selected indicator will be dismantled, services, adjusted and rebuilt.  We will look at what it is trying to do, how it works and how can we our it in our trading.

This month we look at moving averages. They are one of the most useful indicators in technical analysis.  They are the basis of a string of indicators and to it is useful to know how they work.

This month we will do a quick overview of all the indicators to be investigated and see how they fit into groupings with similar styles.

Yes O,H,L,C is an indicator!  It summarizes a vast amount of data as a means to extract some sort of readable information out of the market noise. This month we will look at this most basic of indicators in detail.

This is one method of trading these trending shares.  A look at the statistics of trend trading generally and then how rotational systems work to give these statistics.  A look at a system in detail and how it looks and feels to trade it month by month. Then a look at how to turn the system on and off.  Also see Amibroker templet programs on the Forum section of this site under Technical Analysis Systems.

To trend trade; we need to start by finding  shares that have an existing UP trend and cull out shares that have been either going sideways or going down.  We will look at how we define the long term up trends and how to scan the market for these shares.

A brief overview of the trend trading process; How we can expect trend trading to work and the sort of statistics we can expect.

Peter is something of a poet.  With apologies to Banjo Paterson, Peter rewrote the Mulga Bill story/poem and put it in the context of a trader new to the Financial Markets.  This poem was delivered at the Gala Dinner, ATAA 2018 Conference in May. A bit of light humour!

Awaiting text, coming soon.

This month we look at The Stochastic Oscillator.  A stochastic process is one which combines predictable actions and a random element.  That sounds just like trading!  We will also look at the ?Premier? stochastic ( The oscillators  Hot Rod cousin ) which is thought to have mag wheels and chrome rocker covers.

See also later version of this talk on 18-May-20

This month we look at MACD;  Moving Average Convergence / Divergence. 

This indicator is based on the difference between two moving averages.  From this simple innocent data stream, many stories are squeezed, teased,  cajoled and coerced.  Come into the torture chamber and we will make it talk.

See also later version of this talk on 15-Jun-20

This month we look at Relative Strength Index.  It is a way of measuring overbought or oversold;  How strong is the price spike up or down.  It compares the decisiveness of a move with its inbuilt hesitation.  It is the core of some mean reversion systems which give a very good hit rate; trading off the back of price spikes. 

This month Average True Range is examined.  ATR is a measure of market noise which is used throughout many trading systems.  We will look at the nature of the noise and whether ATR does the job of measuring this noise.  We will look at composite indicators where ATR is used as a universal unit of measurement, allowing comparisons between charts of shares, futures and forex.

Peter would like the word ?twaddle? to be brought back into popular usage.  We have been genetically selected to be biased towards giving meaning to false information,  ( Accepting twaddle ). This can be very useful for survival and reproduction, but this can badly effect our trading.               

As a way of understanding the problem of giving false meaning, synthetic charts have been created.   These charts show many interesting familiar patterns,  patterns created by chance events without any real meaning.  

Why are we so vulnerable to these errors, and how can we tread the path between being too gullible and being too sceptical.

In this presentation, we will look at assembling a trading system that uses all the components we have talked about this year and look at these questions: - How would our system have worked, if we had been able to trade it in the past? - What are some of the highlights and pitfalls of creating and testing a trading algorithm? - What are we looking for in a trading system and how do we know if it is good enough to trade? (Note: No video was made at this meeting.)

In this presentation, we will look at ramping up position size as a trade progresses in the right direction. How much do you increase the position and how many times? We will also have a brief look at the hair raising prospect of ?averaging down?. We want to hear from members on what methods they use. Please have your stories ready to share and contribute to the discussion

In this presentation, we will look at how we get out of our trades. This will depend on the style of system or method that we are using. Trailing stop, profit target, volatility target, indicator signal or rotation to a better share; there are many ways. During the presentation we want to hear from members on what methods they use. Please have your stories ready and contribute to the discussion.

In this presentation, we will look at the critical issue of managing risk. How do we decide how far the trade will go against us before we get out? How much of our trading capital are we going to risk on one trade? Do we use stop loss orders or use some other means of managing risk? During the presentation we want to hear from members on what methods they use. Please have your stories ready and contribute to the discussion.

In this presentation, we will look at how we actually enter a trade, once we have a set up. Is this a clean simple process, like ?enter at open on Monday morning? or some other way? For some, it can be a tricky piece of psychology actually taking the plunge. Do you have last minute ideas that veto the trade? During the presentation we want to hear from members on what methods they use. Please have your stories ready and contribute to the discussion.