Brisbane Chapter, Sat, 19 Jan 2019 at 9:30 am
Saturday, 19 January 2019 at 9:30 am
9:30 am–9:45 am: Welcome and Introduction
9:45 am– 12:00: How to Select Good Stocks to add to your Portfolio by Lasse Petersen.
His presentation will cover the following points:
In selecting a good stock the crucial points to look for are: Is it a good business? And if so, is it a good investment? Both of these questions will be answered in some detail. But these questions need to be considered along with another question, how risky is the stock?
The analysis must always be tempered by applying the following rule - Can it be bought at a fair price? Because a great company is not a great investment if you pay too much for the stock. In assessing the stock’s value financial ratios are used along with the price chart analysis and the consideration of the rating of the stock’s potential given by fundamental analysis & research services such as Stock Doctor, Mormingstar and Skaffold.
The decision process of determining a good stock can be summarised in this 4-step approach:
- Step 1: Review long-term charts (share price performance)
- Step 2: Review long-term financials (business performance)
- Key metrics: EPSG, ROA/E
- Step 3: Review business risks & outlook
- Financial health/debt, other
- Announcements & commentary on the business & industry outlook
IF the stock offers attractive Growth, ROA/E, and a favourable risk profile & outlook, then;
- Step 4: Assess if value is “buy now” or be placed on watchlist and/or place alerts.
Finally, what good stocks have in common is a demonstrated record of superior Investment performance and a selection of case studies on ASX listed stocks will be given to highlight this assertion.
Colin Nicholson stated, “Fundamental and Technical analysis are best used together rather than restricting ourselves to only one type of analysis. Fundamental analysis is used to determine which company is safe to invest in and whether its shares represent good value at current prices. Technical analysis is used to pick a good time to buy those shares.” (www.bwts.com.au/educational articles - ‘Fundamental or Technical Analysis?’)
About Lasse Petersen:
Lasse Petersen is an experienced investor in ASX listed stocks and uses fundamental analysis to determine if a stock is worth adding to his portfolio. He joined ATAA Brisbane to learn more about the viability of using technical analysis to increase his long-term returns by adding profits from trading the short-term price movements of the stocks he owns.
12:00–1:00 pm: Lunch
1:00 pm – 1:30 pm: Market Analysis by Tim Young
I made a comment during our December meeting I’ve had some success in entering option spreads involving selling options on the XJO index. Paul McLaren made the point selling naked options is very risky because one day a trader will be caught by a sudden move against the position and potentially be wiped out; his point is buying options is a preferred strategy because of limited risk.
I have been reading a book written by the founders of optionsellers.com called ‘The Complete Guide to Options Selling’ wherein various strategies are described and naked option selling is one of them. Founder, James Cordier, stated he has been trading options for 30 years and has only scratched the surface of everything there is to know. Earlier this month I checked the website only to receive an error message. Further checking online produced the following headlines - PWCK Law Firm: Investors Wiped Out in OptionSellers.com Natural Gas Scheme Should Seek Help Now in “Double Whammy” Debacle with Margin Calls.
We will have a quick look at this headline about the $150 million plus loss and the YouTube video where James Cordier apologies to his investors.
1:30 pm – 3:25 pm: Topic Discussion Groups
There will be two topic discussion groups running during this session.
- Risk Management
Jerry Bongard will be the facilitator of this group. The discussion points are:
General categories; Tools available - entry orders and stop loss/profit orders, profit/target orders, margin accounts; Review of common risk management guidelines with compare and contrast; Examples presented and handout provided.
- Systems Trading
Kim Sherry will be the facilitator of this group. The discussion points are:
Practical examples in systems back-testing strategies: a) Mean reversion; and b) Momentum.
3:30 pm: Meeting Close
Please note: There will be a break in both the morning and afternoon sessions with coffee, tea and nibbles provided throughout the day. The location is next to the Logan Central Plaza where take-away foods is available. The room has a kitchenette and those bringing lunch can use the fridge.
- Sat, 19 Jan 2019 09:30 AM
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